Tricky Decision

So in light of Mike Quigley's (incredibly difficult and honorable) announcement not to seek the Cook County Board Presidency, I was thinking about the dynamics of the race and the big quandary that it poses for the Governor's campaign.

Why the Governor's race you ask? Well, here's how I see it. Obviously, the two remaining candidates in the Democratic Primary are the incumbent, John Stroger and Commissioner Forrest Claypool. With Quigley not only out of the race, but fully supporting the Claypool campaign, this race will be positioned clearly as the reformer taking on the old way of doing business. Sound familiar?

So here's where it get interesting. Stroger has not been shy about playing the race card in the past, and will subtly (or not so subtly) use it now in order to get voters to the polls. Similarly, the Governor's re-election strategy, to a certain extent in the Primary, but much more so in the General Election, is going to be very dependent upon not only a big plurality of the African-American vote, but also upon a big, fat turnout in the African-American community. In order to get that result, come November, he needs...Stroger on the ticket.

As I see it, this puts our reform and renewal Governor in a serious trick box. If he openly backs Stroger over Claypool, he will significantly damage his credibility among reform voters, not only in Cook County, but around the state. If you are for 'changing the old way of doing business', that has to be a position of principle, not convenience.

If he takes the opposite position, he alienates some of the powerful organizations that are already on the fence with him, plus he may very well shoot himself in the foot with a constituency that does not easily forgive and forget.

It is virtually impossible for him to 'stay neutral' in the race. Even if he doesn't formally take a position, which is the likely case, the efforts of his supporters and those close to him will be justifiably attributed to him.

One can point out the presence of SOS Jesse White on the ticket. But to Jesse's credit, the guy is so well-liked across the state, that I don't envision a rallying cry to get the vote turnout in order to put him back in office.

Accordingly, I think that the Governor finds himself in a very untenable position. Based on a number of things, I have a strong sense of what the Governor is going to do, but I thought that it would be more interesting just to put this out there for all of you to ponder and share your thoughts on. Have at it.